[First published in Diplomacy World, Issue 86 (January, 2001).]
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There has been no more well known triple alliance than the Western Triple (F-E-G). In the Summer 2000 issue of Diplomacy World, Mark Fassio began a discussion on the possible development of another triple alliance of Austria, Italy and Russia (AIR) and his idea of an overwhelming opening blow against the west which he sees as coming from the moves to Bohemia, Tyrolia and Silesia in Spring 01. The problem with this sort of approach is that it creates its own counter reaction by jumping up into everyones face the whole idea of a triple that will inspire counter moves both diplomatically as well as tactically to frustrate the success. It also creates a diplomatic situation where there is a greater tendency to be locked into the arrangement that leads to large scale draws. The Odd TheoryOne of the oldest theories of play is called the Odd Theory which basically says that you always want to have an odd number in your game alliance structures so that ideally, a game proceeds from 7 in a state of chaos, to "5 vs 2" and then "3 vs 2" and then the game should theoretically have a strategic stalemate. With any triple the key is to make sure that the game does not come down in the opening to 3 vs 4, which is the current very real danger of the Swat opening since it is an "In Your Face" alliance that will inspire the other players to stop it. In working any game board you must play with the minds of the players as much as you do with the pieces on the board. Nothing is more frustrating to the game development than a large unbreakable alliance that is seen as such. Therefore there has to be piece development and diplomatic development that lends itself to the strategy of an AIR triple. Therefore the following is just a few of the possible guidelines that I think will lead to a more intense game as well as introduce a lot of tension in the triple which can be used diplomatically as leverage to keep the counter reaction from setting in. The goal of the AIR is to defeat Turkey in the East and England, France, Germany in the West. Diplomacy Prior to Spring '01:Versus England: The Italians say they are willing to go to Piedmont and will take support from Germany and England against France. The Russians should emphasize that they do not want to see an army in Norway and that if there is a hint of the Germans standing them out of Sweden then they are willing to play in the Fall to the Baltic and have the English convoy to Denmark. The Austrian says he has a deal with the Russian to stay out of Galicia and he is worried about the Italian and the Turks since they are traditionally the ones who take Austria apart. Versus France: The Russians push for the possibility of a mass jump on the English with a Sealion approach. Otherwise the Russians are simply trying to play the south and is unsure of what the Italians are going to do and very concerned about the Austrians going to Galicia. Versus Germany: The Italians push the prospect of an early jump on the French, agree that Tyrolia is not interesting at this time and stress that you are counting on the chaos of the Russians and Austrians who do not trust each other to help keep the Turks in their confusion. The Austrians again say that they expect the Russians to stay out of Galicia and they have no clue as to what the Turks are doing. The Russians stress their willingness to go after England but if not hearing the right things from both Germany and France will concentrate on the south since the Austrians are unreliable and who can ever trust a Turk. If Germany is not going to say he is going after England then Russia should push Germany to open Fleet Kiel to Holland to project power on Belgium. Versus Turkey: Everyone should try to be as confusing as possible with last minute changes of plans always good to accomplish the confusion. Russia should find out if the Turk wants to leave the Black Sea open as usual and can agree to a bounce or not. What you do not want to do is to have the Turks play strong against the Russian by going to the Black and Armenia. The ideal is to have the Turkish Fleet play to Constantinople.
At this point the confusion diplomatically must be enhanced with various incriminations behind the scenes of the Austrians against the Russians who were not expected to be in Galicia. Likewise the Italians can have recriminations against the Austrians who were not expected to be Trieste. The French have got to be a little thrown off balance by the Italian move and if there is a major jump on the French then they can continue with their western involvement, while if there is a jump of the French on the English Channel, then the Italians can look like the savior to England. The Russian moves are all based on the idea of what happens and what is believable with the Turks. If they are convinced that they are going to get into the Black Sea then the follow up to Sevastopol by the Army Moscow and a direct move on the Black is a hell of a good opening punch, however if there is a bounce in the Black *the more common issue, then the move of Army Moscow to the Ukraine is required. If the Russian is convinced that the Turk will move the Fleet to Constantinople and fears that the German will be in Denmark in the Spring with the intent of standing off them in Sweden, then moving the Fleet to Rumania is an excellent option. The Fall '01 Diplomacy vs. the West:Confusion must be emphasized and the craziness of the Italians and the disappointment in Russia by everyone including maybe the fear of a RT if there is a tactical position that supports it.
Pre-Spring Diplomacy vs. the West:Once again the west is to be bombarded with the craziness of the Italians, the unreliability of the Russian. The Austrian is to respond to why he supported the Russians against the Turks by the line that this was a way to get the Russians out of Galicia, but that the bum double crossed me and went to Rumania with an Army etc. That and the obvious insane Italian are moving on me now. The Italians say that they are just as frustrated with the Austrians and that they knew he was unreliable because he moved to the Ionian. The Italian also adds in that he is worried by the Russian who lied to him about attacking the Austrian. The Italian position is that he shifted East because the Russian convinced him to do so. The whole focus of the Diplomacy is to present a case where there is mistrust and perceived unreliability in the players ...an AIRhead alliance.
The key here is the total unloading on the German front with 4 armies and a fleet while Italy is marching against both France and turning corner on Germany. Austria is simultaneously moving on Turkey and preparing for a possible stab of the Italians. The Turk is bottled up and will be slowly ground down. Strategically the slow death of the Turk absorbs the AIRheads extra units and forces them to commit loose units that could otherwise be used to stab one another. The Russian builds of fleets in the North and the hoped for Italians break in the south crushes any stalemate line. The idea situation is to pick up England as the ally in the West. The key here is the Italian acting in a manner that is not overwhelmingly tied into the AIR alliance and allows the boogeyman image of a triple alliance. There is plenty of tension in the alliance with Austria needing a good supply of Prozac at various times which is what makes the alliance so deceptive. It also becomes tense for Italy and Russia later in the game as the Austrians will be in the position to make a move against either of them. However, the strategic structure is what is needed to make sure that the Italian and the Russian realize that if they turn on the Austrian the Austrian can toss the game to the other one, further if the Italian builds are mostly fleets and the Russians push the fleets in the north there is the growing tension that the Austrians can make a big stab. The potential for stabbing is high, the reputation that is developed for insanity and instability is critical to providing a background that sells the moves and allows the AIRheads to pull off the moves without triggering a massive jump against them. That is why the Turkish campaign is moved slowly and the Italians are always kept on the edge of the alliance commitment with an image of playing crazy since the AIRheads in the middle game want the Italians to be the focus of turning the game into a perception of multiple alliance structures while in fact there is only one dominant and all powerful deal.
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Edi Birsan ([email protected]) If you wish to e-mail feedback on this article to the author, click on the letter above. |
