DP F2007M: Sherlock Holmes, Consulting Diplomat

As it happened, I opened the door at 221B Baker Street, the flat of my good friend, after having spent the day attending to my patients in hospital. At the back of the flat, Holmes stood at the large table, pipe in hand, staring at a docket of papers that (I could tell even at a distance) bore the great seal of the Suwati nation. At once, I knew that Holmes had again been visited by Lord Reginald Fortescue from the Foreign Office. No sooner had I come to this conclusion and hung my hat than the booming voice of Lord Reginald sounded from corridor: "Ah, Dr. Watson! How excellent that you should join us! Will you take a snifter of brandy? I have just fetched a bottle."

I shook hands with Lord Reginald and accepted the glass he offered me. "What has engrossed Holmes so deeply, milord?" I asked.

"Another challenge from that sly Sultan, I'm afraid, Doctor," came the expected answer. We I raised our glasses in a quick silent toast to the mind of that strange Suwati.

"I gathered as much, your lordship. I am certain that Holmes will be able to assist."

"That is most definitely the hope of His Majesty's government, Doctor. Holmes has never let us down before, and as you know from the state of the world, it is most urgent for the lease on the deepwater facilities of Port Suwat to be extended." (I did know, of course, of the growing turmoil on the continent, and how important the lease had become to the Royal Navy.)

"Sadly, Dr. Watson, I am not precisely sure, myself. It would seem that the Sultan once more wishes the lease extension to be signed at a specific place, but determining that place is now the task of Mr. Holmes. I propose that you and I take our brandy by the fire and allow Holmes his privacy." Lord Fortescue rummaged through his briefcase, and I followed him to the sitting room, he with a stack of papers in hand. "I brought along a second copy of the papers we received from the Sultan, having foreseen the possibility that our friend Holmes will need to retain the information here for some days to assist him as he works." As we settled into the overstuffed chairs before the fireplace, Lord Reginald lay the papers before me on a tea table.

"You see, Doctor, along with the lease extension document (which must be signed soon) the Sultan included only two things for us. Firstly, he provided us with the orders that were issued in the Spring and Fall movement phases of the opening year of a game of Diplomacy. Second and finally, a cryptic note."

I looked at the contents of the packet. Each of the two seasons' orders was accompanied by a map, which I later learned was created by members of the Foreign Ministry staff, using the standard Calhamer Club placename abbreviations that the Sultan was known to use exclusively. Although many of the orders were sensible, some of the others betrayed this to be a rather curious opening year. For example, considering the events of both Spring and Fall, I counted no fewer than five occasions when pairs of units owned by the same player intentionally bounced against one another for no possible tactical reason. As if that wasn't enough strange behaviour for the first year of a Diplomacy game, France allowed England to simply sail straight into Brest unmolested!

To accompany the orders that were sent by the Sultan, the Foreign Office had also created a document and map listing the supply centre ownership and showing the position of the units as the Winter Adjustments phase of 1901 was to begin. Lord Fortescue told me of this and laid it on the table.

Setting aside the maps and the curious orders, I moved on to the examine the text that had accompanied them. As he offered me the paper with the Sultan's words on it, Lord Reginald said, "As you can see, Doctor, the message that was included with the moves consists of a number of cryptic sentences. It is this message that now seems to be holding Holmes's interest."

I took the Sultan's message from Lord Reginald, and read it. It was apparently written in the Sultan's own hand, and in his stilted English:

I was at a loss for words. "I am not sure what the Sultan means for us to make of all this, milord."

"Nor am I, Doctor. Unfortunately, this is all with which we were provided. You now know as much as we do, I am afrai, I am afraid; what you see here is everything that I have turned over to your friend Holmes. The only other item in the package was the lease extension document itself. The document has a deadline -- now only a fortnight away -- and the signature area on the final page of the document reads, 'Signed at the appointed place'. Once we received the packet, the analysts at Whitehall went to work, but decided at length that it would be best if we engage Mr. Holmes."

I looked again at the map, and at the string of orders that had resulted in that position. I could make no sense of the whole, and the Sultan's brief instructions -- if his three-part message could be called that -- provided me no assistance. After a while spent in thought (and in shortening my snifter), I broke the silence, saying, "Well, talking of Holmes, Lord Reginald, let us see how he is getting along," and we rose with our brandy and strode toward the rear of the flat.

Only when we stood across the table from my friend did Holmes lift his gaze from the papers on the table to take notice of my arrival. "Ah, Watson! It is good to see you returned! I trust that your unhealthy charges are doing well. I see that you, however, have returned a bit the worse for wear. I note you are not quite recovered from your slight mishap at St. Michael's Hospital. Rather dark on the east wing of the third floor, don't you think?"

"Quite right; they should get some lighting in that place! Why, I had only just.... I say, Holmes! How the devil...?!"

"It's quite simple, Watson. You have a light reddish patch of mud on the inside scuff of your left shoe. Given your duties today, there is only one place in London where you would go and where that type of soil is found, and that is to the outside patio stair of St. Michael's Hospital. At that hospital, there is a pharmacy in the east wing of the third floor and it is often that the chemist is out. You have laudanum stains on your coat so I conclude that you went to the pharmacy to procure some laudanum and slipped in that dark room."

Holmes was, of course, entirely correct about my experience, not two hours earlier, at St. Michael's. As many times as my friend has made such observations and deductions, I have never quite become accustomed to them. The great detective drew from his pipe, then said, "Watson, our visitor has brought with him a very pretty puzzle for us."

"Yes indeed, Holmes; Lord Reginald has been detailing the problem to me in the drawing room. I admit that I am quite in the dark as to what the Sultan is up to this time!"

"It does present a mystery, Watson, but with some thought, it seems that the terms that the Sultan set can be quickly and easily determined."

Lord Reginald was quite surprised by this statement. "Holmes!" he exclaimed, "do you mean to say that you have solved this riddle? The Foreign Office has struggled for over a week, and within the span of an hour, you have determined how we are to ensure the extension of the lease?"

"No, not just yet, milord," came Holmes's reply, "but I believe that it shall not be too much longer. It now seems to be a simple case of playing out this unusual game of Diplomacy. A short while at the game table, I would think, and we should have the answer the Sultan wishes us to find."

Lord Fortescue seemed dejected. "I rather feared you would say that, Holmes. Playing out the game was, in fact, the same recommendation made by the analysts at Whitehall. This, though, seems to me and everyone else (including all of these same analysts!) to be an impossibility, and so we naturally questioned such a proposed course of action. Are you quite sure?"

I was very confused, and I had to ask, "Play the game forward? Firstly, what makes you both say that this is what we are to do?"

Holmes answered me. "Surely, Watson, that much should be clear from the Sultan's brief set of instructions. In fact, it would seem that the Sultan has laid two tasks for us. One of these tasks is" (Holmes consulted the papers on the table) "to 'determine each final (eventual) Diplomacy centre being captured.' Interesting wording, wouldn't you say, Watson?"

I could only shrug and refill my snifter of brandy as Holmes continued. "You see, Watson, we have been given a position and instructed to determine which supply centres are the final centres that would lose their neutral status if the game were played out."

"Even so, Holmes, how would determining the final centres to be taken (even if such a thing is possible) do us any good?"

"That, my dear Watson, is also made quite clear in the Sultan's message. The second of the Sultan's tasks is for the Crown to purchase a round-trip ticket -- 'begone and back' was the Sultan's term for it -- and to instruct the envoy from the Foreign Ministry to use this ticket to reach the Sultan and finalise the lease extension."

I looked again at the initial message, this time with my friend's insight, and I had to agree. "Yes, Holmes, I suppose you are right. The Sultan is asking for the British emissary to travel on a round trip ticket to meet with the Sultan and sign the lease extension. Am I to understand that solving this riddle will tell us the location where the signing is to take place?"

"It will, Watson, but it seems that this information will not suffice. To be able to purchase the proper ticket, then in addition to determining where the Sultan awaits, we must determine a second location as well. The Sultan specifically says that we are to determine 'each final' centre. From this wording, we can conclude that it is not sufficient simply for us to know the final single centre to lose its neutrality; we must know more than one. Notice, too, that later in his message, the Sultan uses the word 'earlier' -- not 'earliest', but 'earlier'. From this, we know that the final two such centres are what we are after. Given all this, and the Sultan's admonition that the envoy should begin his voyage from the 'earlier de-neutralized centre', we know that the round-trip must begin and end at the supply centre that loses its neutrality second-to-last, and that the Sultan awaits the envoy at the supply centre that is the final neutral to be acquired."

Lord Fortescue and I looked at our friend with silent admiration. After a short pause, Holmes added, "Of course, it is imperative that the emissary travels on a round-trip ticket, milord. The message did say 'confirmation demanded', indicating that the proper ticket will be necessary for our envoy to gain an audience with the Sultan. Whether by train or by steamer, it matters not, I am sure, but most certainly, our man must travel on a round-trip ticket."

"Begone and back. Yes, I see now, Holmes. But from where and to where?"

Holmes simply chose to smile at the two of us, which I admit only made me more anxious to know his mind. While Holmes drew contentedly from his pipe, I stared hard at the twinkle in his eye. Suddenly, I felt that rush of adrenalin that I feel all too infrequently, on those rare occasions when I have an insight that I believe will please my friend Holmes, who constantly challenges my powers of deduction. "Lord Reginald! I know what you should do!" I exclaimed.

Even Holmes seemed surprised by this. "Indeed, Watson?"

I puffed myself up with pride. "Certainly, Holmes! We need not play the game forward at all! Consider the current situation," I said, pointing down at the map of the game as it stood ready for the Winter 1901 adjustments. "There are eight unowned supply centres. If the Crown can afford the expense," I smiled, "it seems to me that a mere fifty-six round-trip tickets -- seven from Belgium to each of the other unowned centres, seven from Denmark, and so forth -- will certainly cover the requirements! Dispatch fifty-six envoys, milord, and worry not!"

Lord Reginald was excited by this prospect, but Holmes simply shook his head. "You are correct, Watson, that one of these fifty-six envoys would bear the ticket that the Sultan expects to see, and you are correct that this envoy would reach the city where the Sultan awaits. However, you forget, Watson, that the envoy must bring with him the original lease document sent to us by the Sultan and which is embossed with the great seal of his Sultanate. Without meaning to disparage the talents at the Foreign Office, milord, I daresay that it would not be possible given our deadline to attempt to duplicate the elaborate seal of the Suwati nation, and to forge so many copies of the lease document. Even if we did achieve such a thing, Watson, remember also that six incorrectly-ticketed envoys would also reach the correct embassy, and forty-nine more would be approaching various Suwati embassies elsewhere, all seeking the Sultan. If any of these envoys attempts to present his credentials before the correct envoy might happen to do so, a simple telegraphic message will most assuredly inform the Sultan, and he will lose all willingness to sign any extension of the much-needed lease. No, Watson, we must solve the puzzle; such a short-cut will not do."

Holmes was correct, as usual, and Lord Reginald returned to his state of dejection. "It all makes sense," Lord Fortescue began. "However, since the question of how to play this game of Diplomacy forward is still open, it unfortunately seems that what remains for us to accomplish is quite impossible."

"I agree, Holmes," I said. "How can we play out a game of Diplomacy from a given position? There is no way to know the minds of the seven players and to determine what orders they might give their units. Even if we knew -- and we do not! -- the subjects of player conversation and even if we were acquainted with the details concerning any of the informal agreements in which the players might trust (whether wisely or not), we cannot possibly foresee the fates of these alliances. The foibles of human nature and human error would surely prohibit our forecasting any moves!"

"You are quite correct, Watson, but in this case, the Sultan obviously wishes for us to play the game forward. Therefore, we must conclude that he has given us ample information to determine -- in your words -- the 'minds of the seven players' at each turn."

At this, Lord Reginald chose to sit down at the table, and Holmes and I joined him. A look of tired exasperation was on the nobleman's face. "Holmes, it is obvious to me that to try to divine the future of this game is madness. The units are simply being ordered haphazardly, to my eye!"

Holmes smiled. "It would seem so at first, but with careful observation and some clues from the curious message that the Sultan provided, we can see that there is method in the madness, milord. Indeed, the game is being played quite consistently and in a very orderly fashion by all seven players."

I could not contain my disagreement. "Consistent and orderly, Holmes? Really now!"

"Yes, Watson, and if we simply take the position we have been given and continue doing just as the players have been doing, we can certainly determine the two supply centres which are the last to lose their neutral status."

"I truly cannot fathom what you are saying, Holmes. I have stared at those silly moves for hours if not days," Lord Reginald said. "I see neither rhyme nor reason for the orders, and I have no idea what the future might possibly hold for any of these players."

Holmes lay his pipe on the table. "Oh, the moves are not without reason, gentlemen. Watson, if you will fetch us a Diplomacy set from the library, I believe we can send Lord Reginald back to Whitehall within the hour to set in motion the completion of this unique diplomatic mission. If you would be so kind, Watson, while you are up, I would ask that you bring me a snifter for some of that brandy you two are enjoying."

I rose from the table and complied. When I returned with the Diplomacy set, Lord Reginald and I set the board up in the position before the adjustments of Winter 1901, while Holmes filled the snifter that I had brought for him.

With the board set up, Holmes reached for the box of extra pieces, and started adding units to the board, while calmly announcing, "I trust that both of you have most certainly determined the Winter 1901 Adjustment phase orders that will begin our work."

At this, I had to stop my friend and express my incredulity once more. "Holmes, I truly cannot see how we can hope to divine the builds, the removals, and the movements of the pieces as the game progresses!"

Holmes grinned freely. "Elementary, Doctor, considering basic, clear-cut, down-to-earth, emotionless Diplomacy, created by Allan B. Calhamer."

Can you determine where the royal envoy is to be sent, and where the ticket he will use will take him to meet with the Sultan to sign the lease extension? Mail your answers to The Pouch!

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Sherlock Holmes,
Consulting Diplomat

by Manus Hand,
Master Aenigmatist

Begone And Back: A Basic Conundrum

Sherlock Holmes, Consulting Diplomat

by Manus Hand, Master Aenigmatist

Begone And Back: A Basic Conundrum

Sherlock Holmes,
Consulting Diplomat

by Manus Hand,
Master Aenigmatist