The Diplomatic Pouch

Player Analysis for Spring of 1907 in describe

Austria

Army Bulgaria SUPPORT Army Rumania.
	Defensive against T, leaves units in place to fight with T.

Army Galicia SUPPORT Russian Army Warsaw -> Ukraine.
Army Rumania SUPPORT Russian Army Moscow -> Sevastopol.
	Assisting R against T.	If T does as expected R will occupt sev
and ukr.  T will be forced to disband a unit during 07 adjustments, and
guard his border with R.  Combined with a renewed AI attack on T, T will
be in trouble.

Fleet Albania -> Greece.
	My fleet is headed back out for action.	 gre-aeg in the fall will
give AI control of the turkish coastline for our attack on him.
(Assuming Italy comes through with ion-eas this move.)

Army Bohemia SUPPORT Army Tyrolia.
Army Tyrolia SUPPORT Army Bohemia
	I don't expect any trouble from G, but I want to leave my units
in place here.  From this position, I can attack Italy (tyr-ven), Germany
(go for mun), or Russia.  If needed, I can also try to prop up G if E
gets too powerful.

--------------

England
    He stabbed G, which takes the pressure off of my northern front.
He wants me to attack Italy, but I'm warry.  Right now, only Italy has a
decent sized fleet to oppose E.	 Attacking Italy could open the way for E
to cross the mid-mediterranian stalemate line, and grab a win.
	E has staked a claim to all of G's holdings except mun and ber,
which I don't like.  Supposedly, E is granting concessions to R in the
north, but I expect any Russian northern centers will be weakly defended
and can be taken by an English naval power.	 R's vulnerability, E's
claim to most of G's centers, and a stab by me of Italy has a good chance
in ending up as an English solo.

Germany
    I encouraged G to ally with FI against E.  I left him alone this
turn, but I may end up coming in and try to grab a piece of the weakened
German if it won't give E too much of an advantage.

France
	Asked him to cooperate with GI.	 He suggested a sort of grand
anti-ER allinace by everyone else, but that would be pretty unworkable in
the long run.

Italy
	Now that E has let up the pressure on Italy, I needed to find
Italy something to do to make sure he wasn't tempted to attack me.  I
warned him that E was still the main threat to him, even if he has let up
for now, so Italy should try to kick E out of the med completely.  With
only 2 English fleets in the med, this reopened the opportunity to attack
T, this time with Russian help.  So I asked Italy to do ion-eas.  That,
along with alb-gre (headed for aeg) and R retaking sev, sets the stage to
eliminate T.

Russia
    I'm supporting R in retaking sev.	 R will force T to gaurd
arm, opening opportunities for AI to make headway.

Turkey
	T made an enemy of R by taking sev.	 I want to renew the AI vs T
war, this time with R's help.  In the long term, I saw T as big threat to
me, so I will be glad to be rid of him.

England

	A disappointing turn, diplomatically, as Austria will obviously
not be stabbing Italy any time soon.  But, on the good side,
Russo-Turkish cooperation looks likely, but the trick will be disguising
this possible cooperation for a bit longer if it will come about.

	Diplomatically, in order of importance...

	Austria - Not only will he probably not stab Italy in the next
century, but he also saw fit to claim Kiel as well.	 I gave him my
blessing regarding Munich, and that was fine with me.  But I really don't
understand how he could ask for Kiel - it's like me asking for Naples
(Hmmm, and now that I think about it, that time might not be all that far
away.)	He's not really near it and in my opinion, Kiel is definitely in
the British sphere.  (This assumes that Germany will soon no longer have a
sphere.)  Austria has switched to the "solo accusation" tactic, in which
he says that I'm going for a solo victory now and that I should give him
something to make him less nervous.	 There are some flaws with his
argument, mainly that I still have a five-centre Germany to deal with and
that I'm not going anywhere in the Med at the moment and that it's a
well-known fact that I'm ceding Norway to Russia this year.  Oddly, I'm
not really worried about the Austrian tactic, since there's not much that
he can do, and especially with Italy.  I'll be happy to plug them up in
the Med and make things really boring, but I'm trying not to.
    Russia - Things are going really well with Russia.  I'm his main
ally - I hope - at this point and giving him Norway (and going through
with it) will keep him happy, honest and on my side.  I talked a little
with him about his honest playing style, partly out of curiosity and
partly to see whether he might be fibbing and waiting for when the time
is right for a great stab.	He gave me a pretty good answer, but that
just might be his stock answer for that question that he gives to all his
unsuspecting victims.  In any case, I don't think I'll leave myself too
open to him.  We also agreed that he could not build a fleet in StP...
	Turkey - Focused a bit on helping Turkey see that Russia was his
only possible friend at this point.	 I'm still confused about why he took
Sev.  I'm going to suggest to Turkey that he take Bulgaria, because this
will force the Austrian back to Serbia (Italy's centre, smile).  I know
that this will definitely keep Austria allied with Italy, if Turkey does
this, but as I said earlier, I don't have much hope in Austria turning to
the Dark Side (read, the English Side) of the Force.
	France - He sent me something about possible cooperation, and I
made him a puppet offer, but not surprisingly he didn't accept it.  He
says he wants to salvage some dignity, which is understandable.  My guess
is that he will cooperate with Italy in trying to get me out of the Med;
I'm not sure what he'll do with Germany, if anything.
    Italy - I sent him a small note asking how his soldiers were
liking the Sahara.  He said that they liked the entertainment in the
Balkans better.
    Germany - He said that he figured that I would stab this coming
year, and that I was making a mistake and that we would see who was
right.  And I said, "Let's."


    Tactically-

    My priority this turn is getting some armies onto the Continent
and offsetting the loss of Norway (and gulp, maybe Spain as well) by
getting one or more German centres.  Denmark is a certainty, thankfully,
and I stand a good shot at Kiel.  However, the real trick will be keeping
both of Bel and Hol.
    Obviously, Spain is at risk.  My two fleets in the Med are acting
as skirmishers, just keeping Italy busy.  If Spain is taken, I will be
content to retreat to Portugal and slam the door on the Med and
concentrate on the North.  But, if I had my druthers, I'd keep my boats
where I've got them.
    Specifically...

    F Spa(sc) S F GoL-WMed, F GoL-WMed:  There were several things I
could have done with these two fleets, and none of the options were as
safe as this one, and safe is what I need in this area.  I want to make
sure that I get that fleet out of GoL, because for what I need that space
is kind of a backwater, where a fleet can get trapped, eliminated and my
rebuild will be far from what I need it to be.  This move should get me
into the WMed and will at least prevent Italy from doing so.  From this
position, I'll see if I can hang around and distract Italy.
    F Bre-MAt:  Fleets are kind of weak when holding supply centres,
particularly Brest, and besides, the MAt is a crucial spot.  Germany can
move into Brest this turn, of course, but he won't be able to hold it
come Fall.
    A Lon-Eng-Pic and F Eng C A Lon-Pic:  I had three possible
landing sites for this army - Brest, Belgium or Picardy.  A move to Brest
is easily denied by the German and with potentially problematic
consequences.  A move to Belgium is even less likely to succeed and
doesn't give me enough options.  Picardy is a better spot.  To deny this
move, Germany has to do A Bur-Pic, giving up a good shot at Belgium and
making a fall convoy to Brest a certainty.  I think this convoy should
succeed, and from Picardy I have many options - I can guarantee convoying
a third army over (to Brest), defend Belgium or move on Paris.
    A Edi-Nth-Den and F Nth C A Edi-Den:  This was the easiest move
to write, since this move can't be denied and will gain me Denmark in the
Fall.
    A Liverpool-Wales:  I figured that the best place to convoy this
army was to the French/Belgian coast, as it had the best chance of
landing in one of Bre-Pic-Bel.  Right now, I'd have to say that it's going
to Brest, since by moving F Bre-MAt I can convoy this army across to
Brest and support this convoy with the fleet.  I will keep my options
open, of course, but the best place to go for what I generally intend is
Wales.
    A Holland-Kiel:  I don't like to sit around defensively, and
since A Hol can't be dislodged this turn, I thought it wise to make a
preventing move.  This move is designed to bounce the German A Ber-Kie.
Germany can support that move, of course, but I don't think he will.  My
guess is that he'll use A Ruh S A Bur-Bel and then do A Ber-Kie and maybe
A Mun S A Ber-Kie.  Of course, this risks Mun to the Austrian.  I'm
hoping that Austria will attack Mun to cut such a support, but I decided
not to say anything about attacking Mun since it would seem like he was
doing me too many favours.  (I said that he could have Mun, not that I
would really really really like for him to move there this turn.)  If all
works out, this will bounce the Germany army heading for Kiel and give me
some breathing space in the Low Countries.
    F Swe-Baltic:  Another move that will work, and along with my
army move to Denmark I've got at least two units on Kiel in the Fall.
(And Austria thinks he has the right to claim it!  Hah!)  Which unit
attacks Kiel hasn't been determined yet, but a lot depends on how things
pan out.

    Right now I'm focusing on attacking Germany, making sure that I
don't stand out too much, keeping good relations with Russia and
hopefully cloud Austria's judgment in the process, and force him into a
mistake.  I can do the first and third pretty well, but the real trick
will be the others.  So far I'm getting a C- in that respect.

    Lord Sheringham

France

No analysis submitted

Germany

Last turn, the worst case happened. As i predicted, england turned against  
me, a turn to early to do something against.
So i have to try to reach treaties with all others to stabilize the front.
i have dislodged all units on the eastern front. This is a gamble, but i  
hope, that austria and russia recognize, that if germany falls, england  
wins the game.
First of all, i must try that england does not get any more armies to  
france.
Obviousesly, i could try to capture bel, but that would allow england to  
get armies to den and pic. I hope he attends me to do so.
gas - bre is intended to cut a possible support for landing in pic and to  
fail england to exchange his fleet in bre against an army.
bur - pic will hinder england landing in pic
ruh - hol for the case he tries to defend bel by hol-bel
ber - kie to hold the northern front, if he do not go to den this turn, i  
maybe can reach to hold den


Bis dann

Thomas

Italy

No analysis submitted

Russia

No analysis submitted

Turkey

sev-ukr
blaCank-sev
conSbul
ank-bla-sev

Well, I am going after Russia full force.  If I make it into the
ukraine, then I will have the option of attacking Austria in rum or
bul in the fall.

- Sultan

    -----------------------------------------
    
England seems to be far enough away and willing to give advice.
I've always like the idea of an RT alliance, so I plan to take
that recommendation.  I have submitted HOLD orders so that I
do not get side-swiped with late moves, but I am waiting for
England's advice on moves.

--Turkey
    

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Last updated on Sat, Sept 27, 1997.