The Diplomatic Pouch

Player Analysis for Fall of 1906 in describe

Austria

Army Bulgaria SUPPORT Army Rumania.
Army Rumania SUPPORT Army Bulgaria.
	Just in case T tries something funny, although I doubt he will.
I want to leave these units near T, since I think the chances of him
attacking me after he takes sev will be high.

Army Galicia SUPPORT Russian Army Warsaw.
	Protect war from G.	 This is under the assumption that EG is
still together.

Army Tyrolia SUPPORT Army Bohemia.
Army Bohemia SUPPORT Army Tyrolia.
	Defensive moves against G.	tyr is also well positioned to stab
Italy.	From boh, I can influence things with G and/or R.

Fleet Trieste -> Albania.
	Italy is supposed to convoy alb-tun, although I don't know if he
will support that move or not .  Actually, I agreed to do tri-adr in case
Italy gets bounced from tun.  But, I asked E not to try and bounce Italy
in tun, and if E stabs G, I think he will let alb-tun succeed.  I decided
I'd rather have the fleet in alb than adr.  From alb, I still have access
to ion, and can also defend gre.  This disadvantage is risking getting
bounced and going nowhere.


Russia
	My position is fragile with a large Germany to my north, an
extremely dangerous T to my south, and the possibiity of an Italian
stab.  So even though R is weak, I'm seeking friendship with him.  R's
track record as an honest player is another reason.	 R could potentially
help with containing T or help with fighting EG (or EGT).


Italy
	Italy blew a chance to set up a stalemate line by not supporting
alb-tun in the spring, choosing to use tys to support gol instead.	AI
should have done

spr06:	alb-tun (tys supporting), tri-alb
fall06: ion-nap, alb-ion

This would have set up a stalemate line of pie-tus-tys-tun with ion s tun,
nap s tys and tus s pie.  (saving F would be nice to deny EG a center, but
not necessary.) In part this is my fault, since I didn't take the time to
look at the E vs I position at all.
    While it is likely that T would attack this line from behind to
collapse it, at least would have given AI a better bargining position
against E; more incentive for E to stab G.
    There is also the possibility that Italy wanted that bounce, in
order to keep an army in the Balkans to stab me.
    E is expecting me to stab Italy.  Whether or not I do so will
depend on how things look.  I won't stab this move becuase of the Italian
army in alb and the possibility it's an EG trick to break up AI.


Turkey
    The way things currently stand, AIR will probably be eliminated by
EGT.  So, AIR needed to work on those 3 to keep them from allying.  The
"AI suicide to kill T if T stabs us" is really the only thing detering T,
and it's pretty weak.	 If T takes sev and builds a fleet, T could very
well hold out long enough against even a combined AIR attack for EG to
crush AIR from the west.  Italy might prefer throwing me to the dogs and
let GT kill me, so he can fight E and hope he can come out of it with a
share in a draw.
	Toward T, I'm maintaining talk of AIT.  But, I would like to get
rid of T, but that's not possible currently due to a lack of fleets.	So
for now, the next best thing is to contain T with R's help.


Germany
    New German player.  I'm working on him to get him to break with E.
G really can't attack E since he has one fleet, but at the least I hope
to make G use units to defend against E.  I suggested that it is only a
matter of time before G is stabbed by E since 1) it would be easy, while
Italy is positioned to give E a decent fight, 2) G can't help E that much
against Italy so he's not useful to E, and 3) E choosing to expand by
squeezing through mos is unlikely.
    I suggested that G let AR dislodge some of his armies so he could
disband and rebuild fleets, but G didn't want to risk that.  So, I offered
peace in central Europe, so he could focus on E, and an alliance with
Italy to provide fleets (unitl G could get some of his own fleets later by
dislodge/disband or gaining centers in mar, war).


England
	Still working on getting E to stab G.  He says he'll do it, but
we'll see.	 I asked E to not try to bounce Italy out of tun.  That will
minimize Italy's ability to stab me later, although I may regret it if it
turns out an Italian army in ser would be useful in defending against T.
If I don't stab Italy (as E expects me to do eventually), then the unit
in tun will be useful against E.  If I do stab Italy, having that army
out of the balkans makes things easier for me.
	I also asked E to not take stp, since I want R around as an ally
should things get difficult for me with G and/or T.	 I told E that stp
was essentially already his since it would be relatively easy to take.


France
	F is playing a role in the effort to break up EG, by offering E
anything in exchange for survival.

England

	England's Fall 1906 (I think) Analysis:

	Things slowed down a bit lately, and not many people sending
press.	But it picked up near the end and this should be a turn that will
definitely shake up the board.
	I have decided to stab Germany.	 That the original German just
went abandoned has little to do with it, obviously, since I've been
talking about it for a while.
    Diplomatically, in order of importance:

    Germany - quickly got the new guy on the same page about what
we're "supposed" to do, and he was very nice and should make good raw
meat.  He was worried about losing both Warsaw and Sweden, and asked to
move into Belgium.	I said, sure, but he declined after all.  Pity, I
needed something to do with that fleet in the Channel.
	Austria - talked to him a bit and told him that I'd be stabbing
Germany this turn.  (The only person that doesn't know I'm stabbing
Germany is France, the German himself, and Germany's mom;	 however, I'm
not really worried about security leaks, since for anyone to go anywhere
the EG alliance will have to break.)  Austria and I reached agreement - I
think - that if I stabbed Germany, he'd definitely put some serious
thought into stabbing Italy.  I told him to get into position for doing
this next year.
	Turkey - continued to talk with him about his cooperating with
Russia against Austria.	 This is, in effect, my backup plan to the
Austrian stab of Italy.	 Turkey, however, might take Sev which would make
things very weird.	I doubt Russia would appreciate it much.
	Russia - I'm not sure if he'll show up or not, since he hasn't
responded to any mail lately.  Hopefully he'll abide by my request to
leave Norway alone this turn since I really need that third build (a
fleet) to deal with Italy.	Whatever.  I'm trying to play very honest
with him - since that's the style that he's professed and followed
throughout the game, in the hopes that this can be used to my advantage
later on.  So although making the above request might seem dumb and very
greedy, it is being honest and I think he'll appreciate that.
	France - Didn't say much to France.  He wrote me something, but I
forgot what he said exactly.  I think it was anti-German in intent.
    Italy - Didn't talk to him.	 Bouncing his convoy attempt to Tunis
last turn gladdened my heart.  Austria, actually, says that Italy is
going to convoy again, and asked that I let this convoy through to
Tunis.	I agreed readily, since that will make Austria's stab that much
easier and probably make Italy react strongly toward Austria and
therefore lessen his defence against me.  Also, if he wants to put an
army in Tunis, that's fine with me.  A weak move in defending the Med, in
my opinion.

	Tactically, this should be a pretty good stab...

	A Norway-Holland and F North C A Nwy-Hol:  The new German agreed
to the F Bar S A Nwy-StP plan, which is good.  Holland should be wide
open for a convoy to land there.  I hope.
	F Sweden Holds:	 This is subject to change, depending on what I
hear from Russia.  Last I heard, he was still going to Norway.	If I
decide to double-cross Russia - or if a new one shows up - I'll try to
keep Sweden while either bouncing Russia in Norway or playing quiet with
the new guy and assume that he's going to hold in StP and not go for
Nwy.  (Risky.)	In general, if I stay in Sweden this turn and get it,
I'll be able to move to Denmark next turn without opposition (Germany has
no unit in Kiel and shouldn't be able to build anything).  So I'm leaving
Denmark open for a convoy next spring or simply moving F Swe-Den.
    F Eng S F MAt-Bre:  F Eng was headed to Belgium for a while, to
bounce Germany's "stay-even" move.  Now that he's changed his mind, I
have to be boring and support my fleet into Brest.  This move is
guaranteed to succeed, and I choose to keep my F Eng in place for next
spring convoying purposes.
    F Spa(sc) S F WMed-GoL:  If Germany goes after Mar like he's
supposed to, and I do this move, I don't have to worry about Spain
getting dislodged.  Also, there's a chance that Italy might be supporting
his convoy to Tunis with his F Tyn, and so this move actually has a
chance of dislodging his F GoL.	 I had flirted with the idea of
supporting the French army in place, but I think that's something that
Italy will be doing with A Piedmont.  I'll let him do the work while I
kick his fleet out of the way.

	My big fear is that someone let Germany on to the fact that I was
coming his way.	 The only person that would have much to gain from this
is Italy.  I'll be crossing my fingers on this.
    Still, chances are that this will work and the game will get very
fluid again.  I've laid down some things with Austria and with RT, and
depending on how my foundations are I think I have a good shot at moving
toward victory.	 The key, however, is how brutally I get Germany.  The
knife is being sharpened...

	Lord Sheringham

	---------------------------------------------------------------
	
	England's Fall 1906 Build Analysis

    The stab went off pretty well.  Russia apparently got my message
that I wanted him to stay at home in StP this year, and therefore I get
three very useful builds.  Russia will be taking one of Sweden/Norway
next year - or at least that's the plan, and so my goal for this year is
to get at least one more centre off of Germany.	 That will be Denmark,
which I have locked down.
	Italy's convoy to Tunis has me puzzled.  I really don't
understand this move at all, and by allowing his F GoL to be dislodged he
made a big mistake.	 I don't have the forces to push him around in the
Med, but I can annoy the hell out of him until - I hope - Austria stabs
him and makes one or two fleets disappear.
    I'm disappointed that the Turk took Sev, since that will make
Russo-Turkish cooperation very difficult.  Russia has already written
saying that he and Austria were intent on cooperating against Turkey.
We'll see.
    Anyway, for my three builds, no surprise here:

    Armies in London, Liverpool and Edinburgh...
    it's always been a dream of mine to re-enact D-Day, and now
here's my chance.  My job will be much easier than the real thing, since
the landing zones have already been prepared.  A Edi will be going to
Denmark, I'm pretty sure, and A London will be going to one of Bre, Pic
or Bel.	 This depends on what Germany removes to some extent, but unless
he keeps both A Gas and A Bur alive, I'll have a guaranteed convoy to the
continent.  A Lpl will probably be going to Wales next turn in order to
convoy over in the Fall.

    Got a lot of diplomatic work to do, but I'm pretty confident in
my abilities.  Fingers crossed.

	Lord Sheringham
	

France

No analysis submitted

Germany

General comment
The situation is quit difficult because i do not know anything about the
former treaties and diplomatic negotiations. The biggest problem is the
alliance with England. I do not like England in my back, because it can
nearly always get to or three german support centers and i can do nothing
against. I started negotiation with austria about that. hoping we can
start an german-austrian-italian coalition against england. The problem is
turkey. I think england is negotiating with turkey cuase, after a fall of
russia, england has no other possibilities than turning towards germany,
so i think he will try to persuade turkey to pressure italy and/or austria
so he has to handle with germany alone.
I have to fulfil my treaties with england at the moment cause of my
poition wide open to an english intervention. all i need is time and peace
with austria.
a gas-mar
a bur s a gas-mar

for the very unlikely case that italy does not support marseille.
thought about gas-bre, but with england still loyal, this would be an
unfriendly move and i give up pressure against mar.

a mun s a sil
a ruh s a mun

never trust austria
a lvn-mos
cut support for all three russian support center, stp, war and sev

f bar s english a nor-stp
i don not like that, but not to do it would be a war declaration to
england

a sil-war
a pru s a sil-war
i do not really think i capture war, but let`s see. maybe austria has to
do other things than supporting war.

a kie-ber
two reasons. First is to strenghen my eastern flank for several reasons,
pressure against russia or england depending on what happened and in case
of an austrian intervention in sil

the other one is to have kiel open for building eventually a fleet here.

Bis dann

Thomas

Italy

No analysis submitted

Russia

No analysis submitted

Turkey

Moves:
	arm-sev
	bla S arm - sev
	f con s bul
Well, looks like I will count russia out.  Even if I dont, I think
a turkish piece in sev is better than a russian build in sev.  Even
if I double cross austria later, I will have more control.

- Sultan

	-------------------------------------------
	
  I built the army in ank.	No surprise.  I will continue to attack
Russia and stay on the side of A/I.	 If I rock the A/I/T alliance,
I will just invite England to win.

- Sultan
	

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Last updated on Sat, Sept 27, 1997.